Wall Street indexes predicted nine out of the last five recessions.
Humans are terrible at predicting the future. We really overestimate what we can do in the short term and underestimate what we can do in the long term... If we can glimpse even a couple of years into the future, even that's difficult to do.
We want to get 80%-85% of predictions right, not 100%. Or else we calibrated our estimates in the wrong way.
[Explaining a failed policy:] Our crystal ball was very muddy.
We did not cover ourselves with glory. We predicted the day before the war broke out that it was not going to break out.
Every day I make predictions that don't come anywhere close to the mark.
All buildings are predictions. All predictions are wrong.
My view was that if you're going to make a mistake in your predictions, make sure you make them the right way. Don't put yourself into a situation where, in fact, you say you're going to do something, and then all of a sudden you can't.
My predictions are notably inaccurate.
There is an excellent way to make predictions without the slightest risk of error: predict the past.
I'm on record as having said "I've done this amazing movie - The Sixth Sense - that no one is going to see." And then it stayed in the top 10 American films for about six months. So don't ask me. I'm the most disastrous PR and marketing predictor.
When you try to predict future E.R.A.'s with past E.R.A.'s, you're making a mistake.
The only thing that we know about financial predictions of start-ups is that 100 percent of them are wrong
