Accuracy Quotes
A startlingly bad prediction by a Nobel-prize winning economist particularly given it was stated in 1998 rather than a much earlier date when the potential of the Internet wasn’t already apparent. Ironically, the quote is from a Red Herring article he wrote titled “Why Most Economists’ Predictions Are Wrong” in which he asserts that most economists predictions are wrong because they overestimate the impact of future technologies. This quote is part of a longer, equally incorrect quote: “The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in ‘Metcalfe’s law' becomes apparent: most people have nothing to say to each other! By 2005, it will become clear that the Internet’s impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine’s.” See related quotes.
There is a great tendency in politics and government operations to get extremely precise numbers because political opponents will always attack all numbers that do not support their positions. The result is that typically, so much time and money goes into trying to get precision, that by the time the numbers are good enough the opportunity to make the right policy decision will have passed. Much information that bears on an issue is never used because it is not precise enough while the precise information is not particularly relevant. See {619763} for a similar related quote.
Samuel Langhorne Clemens, 1835-1910
This is a reference to mathematical models.
The then CIA Director, Allen Dulles, fostered a practice of “adjusting” intelligence reports to support ideological policies and theories that were then in vogue. The agents in the field knew what was wanted and many adjusted their reports to coincide with the overall intelligence and policy. The station chiefs and other supervisors often ignored reports of their agents that they knew were not exactly accurate. Copeland however, just fabricated reports and “information” from sources. The honesty and integrity of the CIA intelligence operations have varied from time to time and depended much on the CIA Director at the time. Allen Dulles, though brilliant and able, fostered an ideological intelligence agency. He even went so far as to lie to the President on several occasions.
