Prediction, Predictions Quotes
Three days before the Great Depression Stock Market crash
A startlingly bad prediction by a Nobel-prize winning economist particularly given it was stated in 1998 rather than a much earlier date when the potential of the Internet wasn’t already apparent. Ironically, the quote is from a Red Herring article he wrote titled “Why Most Economists’ Predictions Are Wrong” in which he asserts that most economists predictions are wrong because they overestimate the impact of future technologies. This quote is part of a longer, equally incorrect quote: “The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in ‘Metcalfe’s law' becomes apparent: most people have nothing to say to each other! By 2005, it will become clear that the Internet’s impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine’s.” See related quotes.
Economics has never been a precise science which is one of the reasons it is called the “dismal science.” In the final analysis economics depends on the behavior of people—rational and irrational.
This quotation became the mantra of the MIT Media Lab's Professor Hugh Herr and others whose total efforts are spend inventing things for the future.
Greenspan went on to become the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board for 20 years, one of the most successful in history.
Churchill, out of power at that time, was outraged that the Labour government was about to grant India self-government and independence removing half of the British Empire which he revered. His passion for maintaining the empire was so extreme that it affected his usual great powers of political analysis and prediction. The Congress Party Leaders led India to become the largest democracy the world had ever known, and leaders like Nehru and Gandhi became almost as famous and remembered as was Churchill himself.
1st Baron Verulam. Glass was just beginning to be used in homes. This was a prescient prediction of 20th century contemporary homes.
Churchill was reported to be so angry and exasperated that his face turned red and he was sputtering. During World War II, Gandhi, Nehru and other Indian Nationalists were leading protests against British control of India. This not only bogged down British soldiers surprising the nationalists rather than fighting in Burma or in other war theaters, but India supplied a huge number of battalions to the British Army the world over and if that manpower dried up, the allied war effort would suffer. The American State Department wanted Churchill to announce that after Japan was defeated, there would be a process toward self-government. This way, they thought, the Indians would redouble their effort to defeat the Japanese and stop the then current protests and strikes. Churchill was strongly opposed to any diminution of the British Empire, but beyond that, he knew India quite well and realized that at any hint of Independence the large Muslim minority in India would insist on autonomy or a partition of the country and use sectarian violence and terror to intimidate the Indian Congress party and the British, but the major victims of the terror—the Hindus and the Sikhs would not remain passive, but would retaliate in kind. President Roosevelt was in the midst of planning the Normandy Landings of the D-Day invasion and did not want to pressure Churchill and the British at this point in time, so the door to independence was not opened during the war and Britain had to deal with the protests throughout. However, when, after the war, the Labor Government, started a process toward Indian independence which resulted in exactly what Churchill predicted. At least 2 million Indians were slaughtered in the internecine terrorist cycles of fear and retaliation motivated terror attacks what were so extensive that the British military could not really control it.
This is a reference to mathematical models.
This was one of the most accurate foreign policy assessments ever made. The next year the first Arab-Israeli war began when the state of Israel came into being. See {624566} for another accurate prediction.
