Statistics may be defined as "a body of methods for making wise decisions in the face of uncertainty.
I am saying that all predictions concerning climate are highly uncertain.
Now, being a science fiction writer, when I see a natural principle, I wonder if it could fail.
That economic decisions are made without certain knowledge of the consequences is pretty self-evident. But, although many economists were aware of this elementary fact, there was no systematic analysis of economic uncertainty until about 1950.
It is dangerous to attach probability zero to anything other than a logical impossibility.
The true Logic for this world is the Calculus of Probabilities, which takes account of the magnitude of the probability.
It is not surprising that in talking about uncertainty we should lean heavily on facts, just as the court of law does when interrogating witnesses. Facts form a sort of bedrock on which we can build the shifting sands of uncertainty.
