The first step is to establish that something is possible; then probability will occur.
The simplest explanation is always the most likely.
When a coincidence seems amazing, that's because the human mind isn’t wired to naturally comprehend probability & statistics.
Nothing is to be presumed on, or despaired of.
There is no such thing as luck; there is only adequate or inadequate preparation to cope with a statistical universe.
Our chances are always pretty good
Chances rule men and not men chances.
If we do everything right, if we do it with absolute certainty, there's still a 30% chance we're going to get it wrong.
Scientists have calculated that the chances of something so patently absurd actually existing are millions to one. But magicians have calculated that million-to-one chances crop up nine times out of ten.
Sometimes the probabilities are very close to certainties, but they're never really certainties.
It is the job of the historian to say what is likely, and of faith to say what is possible.
If there weren't luck involved, I would win every time.
When we say we are certain so-and-so can't possibly have done it, what we mean is that we think he very likely did.
The Law of Probabilities: the more things you try, the more likely one of them will work.
Probably." "Again with the probablys." "A world full of probablys," she said.
A pinch of probability is worth a pound of perhaps.
When asked what he meant by a miracle: Oh, anything with a probability of less than 20%.
One would appear ridiculous who would say, that it is only probable the sun will rise to-morrow, or that all men must die; thoughit is plain we have no further assurance of these facts than what experience affords us.
Probability is expectation founded upon partial knowledge. A perfect acquaintance with all the circumstances affecting the occurrence of an event would change expectation into certainty, and leave nether room nor demand for a theory of probabilities.
Even though there are no ways of knowing for sure, there are ways of knowing for pretty sure.
If we define risk as 'the likelihood of an irreversible negative outcome,' inaction is the greatest risk of all.
Donald Trump has been saying that I think for as long as I've been listening to him of late, and that's what he's going to do.
It is most unlikely. But--here comes the big "but"--not impossible.
What is necessary is possible, what we want is expensive. What is unnecessary is unlikely.
One can say with reasonable confidence that the likelihood of something analogous to a human evolving is really pretty high.
