Daniel Kahneman Quotes

I made a classic mistake. I held out for something better.

People exaggerate their confidence in their plans - something we call the planning fallacy... The existence of the plan tends to induce overconfidence.

Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.

I always think that I have plenty of time for everything, and then the reality of it doesn't quite match up.

Failure was built into it by an extraordinary of exaggerated expectations.

We always want to congratulate ourselves at having made more progress than we actually have.

Only a fool would think the league was already won after just ten games.

One of the major biases in risky decision making is optimism. Optimism is a source of high-risk thinking.

Hindsight bias makes surprises vanish.

'Pasadena' erred on the side being too dark. That was probably the one thing about it, in retrospect, why it didn't get picked up.

What wild imaginations one forms where dear self is concerned! How sure to be mistaken!

It is always dangerous to underestimate anybody.

Sometimes your greatest strength can emerge as a weakness if the context changes.

At 20, you're cocky and you think you can rule the world, and you get it all wrong.

You don't want to get too ahead of yourself and go out thinking you can play stadiums every night, and they end up being about half-full.

You always think you're better than you are in the beginning.

To be positive is to be mistaken at the top of one's voice.

But when someone is on a winning horse, and everything looks wonderful, it's very hard as an outsider to persuade them something is wrong.

A fool often fails because he thinks what is difficult is easy.

It serves me right for putting all my eggs in one bastard.

There is a tendency to overestimate the positive things in our lives and underestimate the possibility of negative things

For people at the bottom who are really doing badly — those in the bottom 10th or 15th percentile — they think their work falls in the 60th or 55th percentile, so, above average. People at the bottom still think they're outperforming other people.

That's always a funny thing, when people think they're known for every little thing they ever did, and they're really not.

Whenever I do something, it seems so right. And turns out so wrong.

Most of us think that we are 'better than average' in most things. We are also 'miscalibrated,' meaning that our sense of the probability of events doesn't line up with reality. When we say we are sure about a certain fact, for example, we may well be right only half the time.