No one can forecast the economy with certainty.
I admit, I'm suspicious of any career planning that involves chasing the next 'big thing,' just because it's so hard to predict what the next big thing is going to be a couple of years - or even six months - out.
There is an excellent way to make predictions without the slightest risk of error: predict the past.
When my job was attempting to predict future economic developments for the Shell oil company, I was frequently reminded of an Arabic saying: 'Those who claim to foresee the future are lying, even if by chance they are later proved right.'
One may say that predictions are dangerous particularly for the future. If the danger involved in a prediction is not incurred, no consequence follows and the uncertainty principle is not violated.
Being right is overrated! If someone is saying that they're right about the future, that's a claim only a fool would make.
I don't think we should run government based on economists' predictions.
