Could it be that all those reports coming from our own intelligence that Bush ignored was right all along? Could it be that the UN was right all along?
You'll remember Dr. Rice said that several times: It was not a warning about the place and the method and the time - it was a general warning. And that points out the imperfection, if you would, of our intelligence.
If we want the best judgment of our intelligence personnel, we have to accept the fact that they will be wrong sometimes.
There was a survey done a few years ago that affected me greatly. it was discovered that intelligent people either estimate their intelligence accurately or slightly underestimate themselves, but stupid people overestimate their intelligence and by huge margins. (And these were things like straight up math tests, not controversial IQ tests.)
I don't concede that Guccifer is a Russian agent. Officials also said, that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction. Just because the intelligence services say something, as we know from history, does not make it true.
The security of the United States, which is so dependent on having accurate and timely intelligence, is not a Republican or a Democratic issue.
Expect only 5% of an intelligence report to be accurate.The trick of a good commander is to isolate the 5%.
If our intelligence is either manipulated or if it's shaded or if in some way it is exaggerated, it is very, very dangerous for us, particularly as we go down the road and look at other threats.
