Niall Ferguson Quotes

The big question is: When will the term structure of interest rates change? That's the question to be worried about.

When growth is slower-than-expected, stocks go down. When inflation is higher-than-expected, bonds go down. When inflation is lower-than-expected, bonds go up.

One component of the leading economic indicators is the yield curve. Bond investors keep a close eye on this, as it illustrates the spread or difference between long-term interest rates and short-term ones.

Bonds despite their ridiculous yields will not easily be threatened with a new bear market.

Developments in financial markets can have broad economic effects felt by many outside the markets.

Lower interest rates are usually considered good for stocks because they lower the cost of borrowing and make bonds a less attractive alternative investment.

Rising interest rates are considered bad for stocks because they raise the cost of doing business and depress corporate earnings and because higher yields make bonds relatively more attractive than stocks to investors.

When all things are considered, it will be found best for the Nation to leave the Borrowers and the Lender to make their own Bargains, according to the Circumstances they lie under

The Federal Reserve bank buys government bonds without one penny

The sale of Treasury bonds, notes, and bills finances the U.S. government, and those securities are, in turn, a primary vehicle for savings for a wide range of U.S. households. Treasury securities are also an important source of collateral within the financial system.

There's no doubt that decisions made by the leading central banks do affect the global financial markets and, consequently, our situation.

Starting in the wake of the 2008 GFC (Global Financial Crisis), market observers have warned of a crash in the bond market. Initially, it was believed that the trillions printed to bail out the banks would cause inflation and, therefore, a flight from bonds.

The expectation of gradual policy normalization should reduce the likelihood of outsized movements in interest rates.

You would expect to see that first in high-yield [debt], but it was in the most liquid thing in the world. So that, I think - it's a little bit of a warning that we've got to be prepared and just be careful.

Financial markets will tolerate a Republican deficit but will run screaming in panic from a Democratic deficit a fraction its size.

A free-enterprise economy depends only on markets, and according to the most advanced mathematical macroeconomic theory, markets depend only on moods: specifically, the mood of the men in the pinstripes, also known as the Boys on the Street.

There are two superpowers in the world today in my opinion. There’s the United States and there’s Moody’s Bond Rating Service. The United States can destroy you by dropping bombs and Moody’s can destroy you by downgrading your bonds. And believe me, it’s not clear sometimes who’s the more powerful.

The Fed should not be responding to the ups and downs of the markets, and it is certainly not our policy to do so. But when there are significant financial developments, it's incumbent on us to ask ourselves what is causing them.

It is hard to have great confidence in predicting what market reactions to Fed decisions will be.

Nobody likes high interest rates.

What would happen if the markets suddenly questioned our ability to keep public finances in check? What would be the effect on growth?

Making economic policy isn't a popularity contest, especially when financial markets are in a panic.

If you think about it: a big bank in any country, what is it? Really, as an investment, it's a warrant on economy.

Lending rate is a function of both liquidity as well as credit demand.