Lyman Kirkpatrick Quotes
National Intelligence Estimates are perhaps the most important documents created in the intelligence mechanisms of our government… A national estimate is a statement of what is going to happen in any country, in any area, in any given situation, and as far as possible into the future…
Lyman Kirkpatrick, *-1995, CIA executive director, Military Review, May 1961
Sourced by: Eigen's Political and Historical Quotations
The argument here is that secret intelligence, comes from sources and people whose views and claims are not subject to the test of public scrutiny representing a narrow information sample. Publicly available information, while it does not include secrets that the enemy wants to keep secret, does represent vetted and processed information with challenges and contradictions also publicly available. Proponents argue that it is more reliable. Secret intelligence has produced some of America’s worst debacles. An example is the Bay of Pigs. Secret intelligence assured Presidents Eisenhower and Kennedy that the majority of Cuban people was hostile to the Fidel Castro government. If freedom fighters would land in Cuba, the vast majority of Cubans would join them. When the invaders landed, most Cubans were so outraged that their country was being invaded that there was massive public support for Castro’s troops who quickly captured the invaders who were waiting for the popular uprising.
This is one of the reasons that Europe had many security problems during that period. Some of the countries had very poor intelligence services. Even the ones that did have quality intelligence, tended to avoid sharing intelligence with their neighbors.
Lyman B. Kirkpatrick (1916–1995) served as inspector general and executive director of the CIA. He wrote a number of books about intelligence after his retirement.