Nassim Nicholas Taleb Quotes

Although we deal with probabilities and expectations, the actual results can deviate substantially from such expectations, particularly on a short-term basis.

The world is a bell curve. Classroom test scores, employee performance in a company or how many people really, really like you. No matter the population you're studying, they always fit neatly across the standard deviations of the famous bell curve.

Numerical quantities focus on expected values, graphical summaries on unexpected values.

Indeed, eventually, random outcomes all revert to the mean, meaning that streaks eventually end. Understanding this is a key part of intelligent and rational investing.

We all know that players will hit a few more home runs than usual in some years and a few less in others. But the mathematics of chance also predicts that some years they'll hit a lot more, and some years a lot less.

Averages are useful because many traits, behaviors, and outcomes are distributed in a bell-shaped curve, with most results clustered around the middle and a much smaller group of outliers at the high and low ends.

And knowing what happens on average is a good place to start. By so doing, we insulate ourselves from the tendency to build our thinking - our daily decisions, our laws, our governance - on exceptions and anomalies rather than on reality

I always remind myself that what one observes is at best a combination of variance and returns, not just returns.

Information: the negative reciprocal value of probability.

I'm not too worried about that. I am a big believer in modeling.

The analysis of variance is not a mathematical theorem, but rather a convenient method of arranging the arithmetic.

If you were to plot my success or failure, it goes, it very seldom stays on a high plateau.

We all know that Americans love their statistics - in sport, obviously. And in finance too.

Maybe we should teach schoolchildren probability theory and investment risk management.

Historically, we have always seen reversion to the mean. After stocks have had an unusually great 10 or 20 years, they typically turn in subpar results over the next 10 or 20, and after bad 10- to 20-year stretches, the next 10 to 20 tend to be above average.

We must become more comfortable with probability and uncertainty.

Big data has been used by human beings for a long time - just in bricks-and-mortar applications. Insurance and standardized tests are both examples of big data from before the Internet.

Our starting point then was trying to find a way to incorporate mean reversion into the HoLee model.

Briefly speaking, our conclusion is that stochastic volatility does not make a huge difference as far as the pricing is concerned if you get the average volatility right. It makes a big difference as far as hedging is concerned.

Normal is the average of deviance.

This plan is subject to change without notice as all plans are.

I'm always trying to calculate the mathematical probability of certain outcomes.

There are days when you make runs, and there will be a dry spell. Like in business, every year you don't make profits.

Whether baseball or football, we're tasked in front offices with making decisions under uncertainty. How do you corral that uncertainty in a way to make more consistently better decisions? That's very similar.

I go into every meeting, into every room and for every speech understanding the standard deviation, the Bell Curve. I know there are about 10-15 percent of people in the room, who say, "I've been trying to say this for years. Finally. I agree. Yes, yes, yes." I know there are about 15 percent of the people in the room who think I'm an idiot, who think I don't know what I'm talking about, who think I'm naive or I have oversimplified everything. The majority who are open to the ideal.