Bill Gates Quotes
Software substitution, whether it's for drivers or waiters or nurses ... it's progressing. ... Technology over time will reduce demand for jobs, particularly at the lower end of skill set. ... 20 years from now, labor demand for lots of skill sets will be substantially lower. I don’t think people have that in their mental model.
Gates, Bill. Interview by Arthur Brooks. American Enterprise Institute, 13 Mar. 2014, Washington, D.C.
Technology has always displaced and replaced workers, but most industrial technological breakthroughs, in the long run, have created new jobs and better paid ones. What worried Gompers did not appear to materialize in his lifetime, but actually became and issue on the later years of the 20th century and the early 21st century where the computer the robot, and the sophisticated software began to replace workers at a faster rate than new opportunities were created. Gompers was one of the harbingers of things to come.
The Grammar Curmudgeon
His 50 year prediction was a little too optimistic although a large percentage of the routine, and some non-routine, jobs had become automated especially in the automobile and other manufacturing arenas, and many other fields. But there were still some other jobs that were still being done without machines in 2014. Asimov was essentially right but a little early in his timing.
In the Great Recession, the industrial production had improved much by 2012—the 4th year of the Obama administration. However, technology and automation were displacing workers. At the time, the U. S. was producing the same amount as before the Great Recession only it was being done with 5 million fewer workers.
We never have sat down and thought through the new technologies and worked out any way to ameliorate the ‘creative destruction’ that new technology almost always produces. Mrs. Roosevelt was way ahead of most other politicians for almost a century.
We think of jobs being eliminated when technology is employed as a modern problem. But here, in 1936, automation was eliminating jobs rapidly. One fascinating difference is that Mrs. Roosevelt observes that the laborers jobs are eliminated and the high school and college graduates can run the enterprise. 75 years after this quotation, the jobs of the high school graduates were being eliminated and some higher education was necessary for most jobs. As technology improves, the workers who are necessary require more and more education.
One problem critics have with his argument is that while there is always work to be done, there are not always entities willing to pay for the additional work. Gains in productivity will justify investment in more rapid deployment of technology; thus entities in society are will to invest the funds. But if there is no visible economic return from the additional work, corporations and taxpayers may be unwilling to fund it leading to massive unemployment and instability.
Computers, robots have replaced many more American workers than those who lost their jobs by having them replaced by foreign labor. Ironically, even in counties like China, South Korea, and a number of others, have "liost" millions of jobs to automation thenselves.
William Henry Gates III is an American business magnate, software developer, investor, author, and philanthropist. He is a co-founder of Microsoft Corporation. During his career at Microsoft, Gates held the positions of chairman, chief executive officer (CEO), president and chief software architect, while also being the largest individual shareholder until May 2014. He is considered one of the best known entrepreneurs of the microcomputer revolution of the 1970s and 1980s. Gates is also co-founder and chairman of TerraPower that is developing next generation traveling-wave reactor nuclear power plants, in an effort to tackle climate change.
