Nassim Nicholas Taleb Quotes
Redundancy is ambiguous because it seems like a waste if nothing unusual happens. Except that something unusual happens-usually .
Taleb, Nassim Nicholas. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. Random House, 2007.
Technically, the probability has never changed. However, most probabilities are in relation to a specific event or time. A levee may have only a 1% probably of failing in a hurricane but if there are 10 hurricanes a year, the probability that the levee will fail at least once in 30 years is about 50%.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb (/ˈtɑːləb/; alternatively Nessim or Nissim; born 1960) is a Lebanese-American essayist, scholar, mathematical statistician, and former option trader and risk analyst, whose work concerns problems of randomness, probability, and uncertainty. His 2007 book The Black Swan has been described by The Sunday Times as one of the twelve most influential books since World War II.